ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported on Wednesday that Juan Soto’s final meetings will take place this coming weekend, and a decision on the star outfielder’s next team is expected no later than the start of the Winter Meetings. MLB’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the contract floor has touched $600 million.
As a superstitious Italian girl I am consulting my Nana for whatever old-world witchcraft is necessary to make sure Soto is a Met pic.twitter.com/amfprVEd1k
— Gab (@gabrauc) December 5, 2024
The “Soto Sweepstakes” front-runners are the New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays. I would include the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were also mentioned, but let’s be real: There’s no way he’d take deferred money on the contract he’s looking for.
What’s In Your Wallet?
Let’s talk money. Mets owner Steve Cohen is the wealthiest owner in baseball with a net worth north of $21.3 Billion. We know the Mets will do “all things necessary” when signing Soto. YES Network’s Michael Kay previously shared that Cohen is prepared to offer $50 million more than the highest offer. Soto has made it known that he will sign with the team that wants him the most, and the Mets are the clear financial favorite. He turned down a 15-year $440 million contract from the Washington Nationals in 2022. Do you really think he’d leave an additional $50 million on the table?
To reference this excerpt from Sheela Kolhatkar’s (2017) best-seller Black Edge about Steve Cohen:
— Gab (@gabrauc) November 15, 2024
There’s nothing like flashing cash behind the scenes to win. Cohen was offered $1 million to walk away from bidding on that house in Greenwich and even offered to “flip” it. Then he called his real estate agent to raise his bid to $14.8 million and bought the house in cash. If it’s unclear, Cohen is not interested in losing when it comes to business and baseball.
Not only that, but a contract of this size, without it being deferred, is not feasible for these other teams, especially when they’ve got other gaps to fill. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner even said [at the start of the 2024 season] that his team’s $302 million payroll was “not sustainable.” For them, sure. The kid’s got a good heart; He’s worth the money, but I can’t imagine he’d be okay with bankrupting a team just to play ball.
Luxury Tax
FanGraphs shows the 2025 Competitive Balance Tax /”Luxury Tax” thresholds at $241M / $261M / $281M and $301M. When discussing “repeat offenders” regarding increasing tax rates, the Mets have exceeded the respective threshold(s) three times over, imposing a 50% penalty respectively. Cohen bought the Mets in 2020 for $2.4 billion, the most expensive purchase of any MLB team ever. I’m starting to think he enjoys breaking records.
Mets Estimated Roster Payroll in the Cohen-Era
-
2020 – $170 Million
-
2021 – $204 Million
-
2022 – $283 Million
-
2023 – $346 Million
-
2024 – $336 Million
When the Mets also set the record for the highest luxury tax bill at $101 million in 2023, Cohen famously told the press that lowering payroll below the initial threshold “isn’t a goal” of his. How’s that for “ not sustainable,” Hal?
It’s a great time to be a great ballplayer. These projected contracts for multiple free agents are just unfathomable. It feels good to have a disgustingly rich owner and one who’s a lifelong fan of the club he bought. $600 million to Steve Cohen is like a down payment on an investment property or a sizable charity donation. From free agents and dead money coming off the books, there’s an additional $180 million to play with. A couple million here, a couple million there. To quote the man himself, “What am I going to do with a million dollars?” Pocket change. Signing Soto for $50 million above the highest offered contract isn’t going to break the bank – And it won’t be the last big deal for the Mets this offseason.
Money Talks, Wealth Whispers
What a thrilling week for us chronic X/Twitter scrollers. There have been too many rumors, and fans of other teams claim to have “sources” for done deals, with timeframes and values “leaked” in prior weeks. Pay attention to the quiet favorites and credible sources. Post notifications for Jeff Passan are on.
Consider the Jose Siri and Frankie Montas additions, which were not on anyone’s radar. Almost no “leaked” offers come from the Mets because serious business is iron-clad. Do I have to mention that Steve and Scott Boras are good friends?
There are almost too many things pointing to Cohen getting this done. After coming just two wins from the World Series, the Mets currently have a projected payroll of $179 Million for 2025. That figure is comparable to what Soto is looking for as an annual salary below the first luxury tax threshold of $241M. The stars have truly aligned for the Mets this offseason. I’ve got agita thinking about how this is the offseason to throw money at a once-in-a-lifetime-free-agent. It’s not necessary, but as a superstitious Italian girl, I’ve consulted my Nana on what backdoor “good witchcraft” I can practice to make sure he’s a New York Met.
Intangibles
Money aside, Steve Cohen is a lifelong Mets fan. He’s been there alongside us in the trenches the whole time. There’s a lot to say about the intangibles of baseball and how clubhouse culture influences productivity. It’s interesting how all Mets players expressed a desire to return for 2025 in their post-NLCS loss (especially those facing free agency). But in Soto’s literal post-World Series interview, he stated he’s “available to all 30 teams.“ Not that he didn’t express heartwarming gratitude for his teammates and their season, but still…interesting.
The NLCS-reaching “0-5 to OMG“ Mets went into June 11 games under .500. That same team swept the Yankees in the 2024 Subway Series (Honestly, that’s probably when Soto made up his mind). And hey, at least they took two games from the Dodgers.
#YaGottaBelieve
