NEW YORK – Coming off the signing of the largest contract in professional sports history, the New York Mets have made interesting moves to address the large gaps within the organization that came to light last season. Mets President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns – the mastermind behind these signings – is being called upon by fans to make additional blockbuster moves to stay hot in the market, and on par with the additions and trades made by other clubs.
“Sleepy Stearns and his Dumpster-Diving”
Fans are not holding back when it comes to addressing their concerns with some of Stearns’ supplemental additions, or lack thereof, on social media. Many of which are calling these small-ball signings found by “dumpster-diving” (for 4.00 ERA+ pitchers) – asking “Sleepy Stearns” to “wake up” and sign more big-name guys. It seems as though people have forgotten his mastery of eyeing transformable players through analytical development – while sparingly shopping retail.
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Five Reasons to Trust Stearns’ Offseason Approach
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Success in Milwaukee
Consider the Brewers’ success during Stearns’ tenure – They made the playoffs four years in a row from 2018-2021 while he served as General Manager. Extending from the trade for Christian Yelich from the Marlins in 2018 (and then his $215M nine-year-contractual-extended-stay inked in 2020) – Stearns made other substantial moves in Milwaukee that have contributed to their continued success, especially when it came to pitching. He is known for creating an infrastructure that develops players further for long-lasting organizational health.
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Pitching Lab
Stearns was famously instrumental in the creation of Milwaukee’s $60 million pitching lab – utilizing technologies like Edgertronic and Trackman to pinpoint a diagnosable issue in pitching mechanics through analysis of instantly produced data. The use of high-speed cameras allows for analysts to zero in on a pitcher’s overall movement starting from the point of release. The technology is cutting-edge as it produces an instant reading on various metrics like velocity, spin rate, and spin axis – giving a real-time diagnosis, and the ability for real-time correction of something not visible to non-experts. Stearns has brought the same lab-concept to the Mets in Port St. Lucie. Remember how fans were skeptical of the Mets adding starters Manaea/Severino to the rotation, given their rocky preceding seasons? After a few tweaks in the lab, including a small drop in the arm slot; They proved vital to the Mets’ NLCS run. If there is anyone that can mold an underdeveloped arm, a “has-been,” or dwindling talent, it’s Stearns’ eye and the Mets pitching coaches going to work in the lab.
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Depth is Needed
Regardless of if you like these signings or not – the organization needs depth. A healthy organization is one that cultivates lasting success by nurturing their farm system; and you want a decent pool of players to call upon in the event a 40-man-guy goes down. While some of them might be reminiscent of the Wilpons-Era, this collection of names you don’t recognize are the signings that need to happen for a necessary network of roster support. As much as the Mets have the funding to replicate what the Dodgers have done with their roster – buying up every star free-agent on the projected long-term deals they’re in the market for – it’d be too dicey for the Mets to go without a substantial Minor League backing for the later years of their tendered long-term contracts.
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Sweat the Market
When it comes to fans being upset over the lack of star-signings after landing one of the greatest pure-hitters in modern baseball – it’s humorous to consider the fact that Stearns has historically exercised this approach, and it tends to pan out well. He’s strategic and analytical – our generation’s Moneyball Mastermind. Steve Cohen is a hedge fund-guy, he understands the language of investing. With respect to the available talent, the difference in player-acquisitions can translate in a way that’s similar to basic investment strategies.
*Disclaimer: This is not investment advice*
Consider a diversified investment portfolio – the short-term/ “high return” investments come with a premium and volatility. At a lower cost, the long-term vehicles are less sensitive to market fluctuations and have a discounted [interest] rate in comparison; but [depending on multiple factors] it can be guaranteed over a longer period of time.
In baseball terms, Stearns likely assessed the proposed market before the season ended, understanding the big-tickets sign first – hello, $765 million 15-year Soto – and the “fill-ins” would follow suit in the short-term. The Mets would not blow all their money in December on veteran free-agents when all these guys want high-value/five-plus-year deals. The strategy wouldn’t be suitable as the intention for the Mets is to build out and around a core at every level. A lot of these “big names” are approaching, if not 30+ years old. Pitching is exceptionally hard on the body, and the Mets have large gaps on their 40-man roster as well as within their farm system. As with anything, there are exceptions to this of course.
The Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto contracts have over-inflated these projected free-agent deals, not just in value but also in length of time. The intended return-on-investment with a shorter time-horizon won’t always fit the bill with a league-veteran/long-term signing at an inflated Average Annual Value (AAV), and especially not with a roster of too many of ’em. Again, think of Stearns as signing those trial-players like it’s a Mets try-out. Having a proven track-record of creating a winning team on a small-market budget, Stearns loves a discounted project-player; Spending a little more to acquire multiple transformable test-players with the intention of signing two or three long-term “guarantees” is his kind of game. Sweating the market when you’re that analytical is savvy. First basemen options Christian Walker, Josh Naylor, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt are now off the table, ultimately lowering the prices on other available plan-Bs as we inch closer to Spring Training. With fans hoping to make Pete Alonso a Met for life, it’s evident now more than ever that Queens is likely his final destination – and perhaps without flexing too much cash.
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2024 Season
I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face – Those “0-5 to OMG” Mets embodied the 1969 Miracle Mets. 2024 was Stearns’ “proof-in-the-pudding” season. Now we’re seeing it again with this offseason strategy. Those project-player/short-term deals were building blocks alongside Mets anchors. He pulled off a postseason run with homegrown superstar-support in Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos, MVP-finalist previous-trade-turned-long-term-extended Francisco Lindor, and with project-pitchers Severino/Manaea. Stearns said it himself – it was a rebuilding year. His approach to the player market(s) has already been proven to be a successful philosophy in Queens. The Mets made it just two wins from the World Series on a roster of “trial runs.”
A Real G Moves in Silence Like Lasagna
While the Soto signing was a historical moment for the Mets – all the “small” moves they’ve made since then is just Stearns working his magic. They concluded their 2024 season with every player up for free agency publicly stating they hope to come back – adding Soto to the mix only tips the scale in favor of the Mets. You might think he’s not doing anything – that’s far from the truth. The hot market must cool, and we’ll see the masterclass at work.
“If you listen to the fans, you’ll be sitting up there with them.” – Buddy Ryan
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#BelieveInSteve #StearnsMasterclass
